The potential effect of COVID-19-related disruptions on HIV incidence and HIV-related mortality among men who have sex with men in the USA: a modelling study

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Abstract

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  1. SciScore for 10.1101/2020.10.30.20222893: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    For the current analysis, we parameterised age- and race-specific PrEP adherence and dropout using US PrEP Demo Project data21 and calibrated the existing 169 model fits to NHBS PrEP coverage estimates, by adjusting PrEP uptake rates.
    US PrEP Demo Project
    suggested: None

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).


    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    While our analysis maximised the use of currently available data on the impacts of COVID-19 on HIV prevention and care and sexual risk behaviour for US MSM, including age- and race-specific data, it has some limitations, chiefly due to uncertainty about the exact magnitude and duration of these disruptions. Many of the data informing disruption sizes were collected at a single time-point, and do not capture changes as the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, as discussed above. Some estimates were only semi-quantitative, for example, 50% of MSM reporting fewer partners does not tell us how many fewer partners they had overall. We found no data on reductions in ART initiations. However, our sensitivity analysis explored the impact of different disruption levels and durations. Our HIV transmission model was calibrated to Baltimore, but estimates of disruption magnitude were based on national surveys2,10 and a Boston study;12 disruptions may differ between states due to different levels of COVID-19, COVID-19 response measures, and health funding. Therefore, we may not have captured the true impact of COVID-19 among Baltimore MSM. Our impact estimates may not be directly applicable to other US locations with different HIV epidemics and services although we expect qualitative insights from our model to still be useful. Our predicted small impact of an HIV testing campaign during lockdown may partly be due to high HIV testing rates already occurring in many of our model fits (based on sel...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.


    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.


    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.


    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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