Household secondary attack rate of COVID-19 and associated determinants in Guangzhou, China: a retrospective cohort study

  1. Qin-Long Jing
  2. Ming-Jin Liu
  3. Zhou-Bin Zhang
  4. Li-Qun Fang
  5. Jun Yuan
  6. An-Ran Zhang
  7. Natalie E Dean
  8. Lei Luo
  9. Meng-Meng Ma
  10. Ira Longini
  11. Eben Kenah
  12. Ying Lu
  13. Yu Ma
  14. Neda Jalali
  15. Zhi-Cong Yang
  16. Yang Yang

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Abstract

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  1. Version published to 10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30471-0
  2. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.11.20056010: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board StatementConsent: Ethics statement: Data were collected as part of an continuing public health response required by the national Health Commission of China, and hence informed consent was waived.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your data.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    Our analysis has several limitations. When the mean incubation period is assumed relatively long, the model suggests that the incubation period could be much more infectious than the illness period, which differs from our experience with most respiratory pathogens. This effect could be due to the fact that exposure of close contacts to cases was mostly truncated soon after symptom onset of cases, a consequence of efficient case-finding and isolation of both cases and close contacts all over China after Wuhan’s lockdown. When few transmissions occurred during the illness period, a large bias could happen by chance, as a long incubation period in the model would attribute more transmissions to the incubation period. In addition, we were not able to reliably quantify the infectivity of asymptomatic infections given the limited number of asymptomatic infections, 0.9% and 2.9% among primary and non-primary cases, and our assumption that asymptomatic infections share the same infectivity as the symptomatic cases during their incubation period may not be realistic. The infectiousness of COVID-19 patients during their incubation period is alarming. This potential of “silent” transmission substantially increased the difficulty in curbing the ongoing pandemic. More and more countries now have realized that active case finding, testing and isolation alone may be inadequate and should be used in conjunction with general human movement restrictions such as stay-at-home policies. On the ot...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.11.20056010v1 on medRxiv