Within-country age-based prioritisation, global allocation, and public health impact of a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2: A mathematical modelling analysis

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Abstract

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  1. SciScore for 10.1101/2021.03.19.21253960: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.


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    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    As with any modelling study, there are several limitations to our approach. First, while phase III trial efficacy results have been announced for several vaccine candidates, durability data are not yet available, and data on the extent to which the current vaccine products can prevent infection are still emerging2,3,28; our model assumptions may therefore need to be updated as trials and effectiveness studies progress. Second, the number of doses and the timing of their availability are also uncertain; for this reason, we have illustrated simplified scenarios in which vaccination occurs over a one-month period for a range of epidemic stages. In practice, each country will have experienced a different epidemic when the first vaccine is introduced and will scale up coverage over a period of months. Third, the model used here is relatively simple in structure and can only simulate the impact of a single vaccine product, with one value for average vaccine efficacy, meaning we could not include complexities such as multiple vaccine products, nor the potential partial efficacy following the first dose in a multi-dose vaccine schedule. These considerations will be important for future studies. Fourth, our study focuses only on the health benefits of vaccination. It will also be important to consider other therapeutic interventions, as well as the capacity of countries to suppress transmission using NPIs, and to better capture specific risk groups as appropriate to individual countri...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.


    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.


    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.


    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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