Probability and estimated risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the air travel system

  1. Jenna K. Pang
  2. Stephen P. Jones
  3. Lindsay L. Waite
  4. Nels A. Olson
  5. Jason W. Armstrong
  6. Robert J. Atmur
  7. Joshua J. Cummins

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Abstract

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  1. Version published to 10.1016/j.tmaid.2021.102133
  2. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.04.08.21255171: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    Publications were collected using English-language search terms linking COVID-19 and air travel from two primary paths: review of daily news articles and social media posts (referencing published research) or direct search of scientific publication repositories (including arXiv.org, Clarivate, LitCovid, and the CDC’s COVID-19 research database).
    arXiv
    suggested: (arXiv, RRID:SCR_006500)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    Risk is also lowered by decreased worldwide air travel starting in March 2020 and limitation of air travelers to a small self-selecting subset of the global population, therefore a 10-fold change is assumed sufficient for a baseline estimated risk of transmission during air travel. Recognizing that studies could be ongoing to identify transmission events in the air travel system from summer 2020, the estimated transmission risk calculated for January–June 2020, 5.927×10−7 or 1:1.7 million (fc=10), should be considered the baseline estimated risk of transmission. With uncertainty, this risk ranges from 1 case for every 0.7 million (712,000) travelers to one case for every 8 million travelers. While the risk of transmission in March 2020 in the general population was higher than current estimates, SARS-CoV-2 transmission aboard an airplane in March was still a low probability event. It should be noted that these calculations are based on limited testing of 2020 travelers and limited publicly available data, and are subject to the forces of a shifting global pandemic. While the specific numbers will change as more flights are made, tests performed, and papers published, the reports for dates covered by this study indicate a low risk of transmission aboard an aircraft. The inclusion of the two factors for asymptomatic transmission and underreporting are a novel approach to evaluating air travel risk for COVID-19 and lessen the impact of confounding factors and heterogeneous pande...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  3. Version published to 10.1101/2021.04.08.21255171v1 on medRxiv