Modeling return of the epidemic: Impact of population structure, asymptomatic infection, case importation and personal contacts
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Abstract
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.26.20081109: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:There are a few limitations in our study. As inherent in all modeling studies, simulation interpretations are heavily dependent on model assumptions and parameter estimations. Our epidemic model is a population model. Although we take account of population heterogeneity such as age in the current model, our age group is overly broad. A more detailed age grouping scheme, including children, young adults, middle age group, and elderly, may …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.26.20081109: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:There are a few limitations in our study. As inherent in all modeling studies, simulation interpretations are heavily dependent on model assumptions and parameter estimations. Our epidemic model is a population model. Although we take account of population heterogeneity such as age in the current model, our age group is overly broad. A more detailed age grouping scheme, including children, young adults, middle age group, and elderly, may reflect the age-specific epidemic more realistically. Other factors may also be included, and additional compartments such as pre-symptomatic stage may be modeled. However, more sophisticated models require more assumptions and may not necessarily provide more insights about the epidemic process. Instead, in this study, in addition to ensuring the mathematical correctness of the models, we prioritize the epidemiological concepts and clinical relevance in setting up the models rather than model complexity. Nevertheless, our findings do not intend to provide definitive advice to design a new policy but rather gain insights of the epidemic process and provide theoretical support for a possibly more effective prevention strategy based on approaches targeting high risk populations. In addition, we assume random mixing within and between age groups. As a population model, we cannot assess the impact of individual behaviors such as the way of reducing contacts, social distancing and travelling. Furthermore, it ignores clustering within the populatio...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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