Understanding COVID-19 dynamics and the effects of interventions in the Philippines: A mathematical modelling study

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  1. SciScore for 10.1101/2021.01.14.21249848: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.


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    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    For instance, hospitalisations and infection fatality rates do not appear different from HIC, as would have been expected if healthcare capacity limitations and high prevalence of comorbidities drive disease severity and mortality rates; these findings support studies in some other LMIC (e.g., India; 18) but not others where excess deaths were considered (e.g., Brazil; 19). This highlights the importance of strong surveillance and reporting systems for understanding COVID-19 epidemiology. Younger populations typical of LMIC may reduce disease burden in two ways: 1) a proportionally smaller percent of the population is elderly (compared with HIC) and at highest risk of severe disease and mortality from COVID-19 (1,2); and 2) those who survive to old age are often of higher socioeconomic status and may have a disproportionately lower infection risk compared with the general population (20). More intergenerational contacts in LMIC may also lower disease burden because elderly people often reside with family rather than in aged-care facilities, which have driven outbreak clusters in many HIC (e.g., 21). An important finding of this study is that adherence to MHS is largely responsible for limiting transmission in the Philippines while gradually easing quarantines. These results were consistent across regions that span a wide population density gradient, suggesting that this approach could also be effective in other similar settings. These types of personal protective measures wil...

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    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
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