Estimation of the true infection rate and infection fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 in each country

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Abstract

No abstract available

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  1. SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.13.20101071: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    All statistical calculation was done using Microsoft Excel for Macintosh.
    Microsoft Excel
    suggested: (Microsoft Excel, RRID:SCR_016137)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).


    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    The present method has several limitations. First, we cannot estimate TIR or IFR for countries in which the pandemic is still expanding. Second, the theoretical ground for our key hypothesis (negative correlation between ER and IR) may be obscure. However, the extremely high correlation found in the countries where the pandemic is relatively well controlled supports the validity of our estimate. Comparing the present results with local surveys is interesting. Among European countries, a population-based study was conducted in Geneva, Switzerland and revealed 5 to 10% IR [4], which is much higher than our estimate of TIR for the whole Switzerland, 0.52%. Infected persons at the latest survey (June 13th) comprised 0.36% of the whole population of Switzerland (5.3% ER and 6.8% IR). When we divide the examined population into those up to the 3rd survey (May 16th) and those newly added between the 3rd and the latest surveys, each comprising 3.9% and 1.4% of the whole population, respectively, the IR was 9.0% for the former and 0.4% for the latter. The fact that the positive PCR rate is much lower for the recently expanded population supports our cardinal hypothesis. The 5–10% IR documented by the antibody survey [4] is inconsistent with the above figures. This may be due to the exceptionally high prevalence of COVID-19 in Geneva within Switzerland [10]. The reported IR in Tokyo, Japan, the most-densely infected region within Japan, varies from 0.10% (antibody tests) [7] to 6% (PCR...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.


    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.


    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.


    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.