Estimation of global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) using meta-analyses: Comparison between calendar date and days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case

  1. Ramy Abou Ghayda
  2. Keum Hwa Lee
  3. Young Joo Han
  4. Seohyun Ryu
  5. Sung Hwi Hong
  6. Sojung Yoon
  7. Gwang Hun Jeong
  8. Jinhee Lee
  9. Jun Young Lee
  10. Jae Won Yang
  11. Maria Effenberger
  12. Michael Eisenhut
  13. Andreas Kronbichler
  14. Marco Solmi
  15. Han Li
  16. Louis Jacob
  17. Ai Koyanagi
  18. Joaquim Radua
  19. Jae Il Shin
  20. Lee Smith

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Abstract

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  1. Version published to 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.08.065
  2. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.11.20128959: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    For a meta-analysis of the CFR of COVID-19, MedCalc version 19.2.1 software (MedCalc Software, Ostend, Belgium, trial version) was used to analyze the summary effects with 95% confidence interval (CI) and between-study heterogeneity.
    MedCalc
    suggested: (MedCalc, RRID:SCR_015044)
    , Microsoft Excel version 2013 was used.
    Microsoft Excel
    suggested: (Microsoft Excel, RRID:SCR_016137)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    The method of calculating CFR needs to be cautioned, and its limitations acknowledged. The numerator and the denominator of CFR should be composed of patients infected at the same time as those who died to accurately represent the CFR. To overcome this restraint, Baud et al.[8] and Wilson et al.[9] proposed time delay-adjusted CFR to correct the delay between confirmation and death. They adjusted the denominator of CFR as the number of confirmed cases 13-14 days before the measured date to calculate the number of confirmed cases infected concurrently to those who died. Based on these articles, researchers at Oxford University used their global COVID-19 CFR model according to the date since the outbreak in Jan 2020 [17]. However, Oxford’s calculation is also flawed since 13 to 14 days before the date of test confirmation is not necessarily the date when a subject is infected [12]. Moreover, there are cases that show test positivity even after recovery. Additionally, the stretching and overwhelming of the healthcare systems creates a delay between testing and receiving the results, thus confirming the case. As this adjusted time-delay CFR leads the estimate to an unknown bias [12, 13], we used the conventional method to calculate CFR. Moreover, the numerator of the CFR is the number of deaths with COVID-19. We should be aware that this number is imperfect, and may include deaths not directly caused by COVID-19, such as fatal comorbid diseases. This may lead to an overestimation...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.11.20128959v1 on medRxiv