Infectious disease dynamics and restrictions on social gathering size
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Abstract
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SciScore for 10.1101/2022.01.07.21268585: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:We have shown that, when considering limitations on gathering size, decision-makers should consider the distribution of gathering sizes in addition to local conditions when determining the optimal threshold. While a lot of attention has focused on large gatherings, we show that small gatherings, due to their frequency, can be important contributors to …
SciScore for 10.1101/2022.01.07.21268585: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:We have shown that, when considering limitations on gathering size, decision-makers should consider the distribution of gathering sizes in addition to local conditions when determining the optimal threshold. While a lot of attention has focused on large gatherings, we show that small gatherings, due to their frequency, can be important contributors to transmission dynamics. Using empirical data from previous studies, we find that gathering size distributions are in fact “heavytailed” but that meaningful reduction in new cases only occurs once restrictions are set quite low. In theory this conclusion should also apply to future emerging variants of COVID-19 as well as future epidemics other than COVID-19. Our conclusion aligns with that of Brooks-Pollock et al. [24] who have showed that large gatherings of 50+ individuals have relatively small epidemiological impact while small and medium-sized groups of 10 to 50 individuals contribute most to COVID-19 epidemics. Our work highlights the fact that more detailed data on human gathering sizes dynamics are needed, as datasets on this facet of social dynamics are extremely rare. This should include data on gathering size and duration across contexts and seasons as well as how distributions change during the course of an outbreak. These data would allow for more tailored restrictions and potentially more effective interventions. They would also contribute to better understanding of micro-dynamics of transmission during an outbreak a...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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