A wastewater-based epidemic model for SARS-CoV-2 with application to three Canadian cities

  1. Shokoofeh Nourbakhsh
  2. Aamir Fazil
  3. Michael Li
  4. Chand S. Mangat
  5. Shelley W. Peterson
  6. Jade Daigle
  7. Stacie Langner
  8. Jayson Shurgold
  9. Patrick D’Aoust
  10. Robert Delatolla
  11. Elizabeth Mercier
  12. Xiaoli Pang
  13. Bonita E. Lee
  14. Rebecca Stuart
  15. Shinthuja Wijayasri
  16. David Champredon

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Abstract

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  1. Version published to 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100560
  2. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.07.19.21260773: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    Experimental Models: Organisms/Strains
    SentencesResources
    We ignore any migration movements, so at any given time the total population is constant and equal to N = S + E + J + I + A + H + Z + R + D.
    S + E + J + I + A + H + Z
    suggested: None
    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    Prior to February 12th 2021, 15 mL of clarified supernatant (after 4000 × g centrifugation for 20 min at 4°C), was concentrated using an ultracentrifugal filter device (4000 × g for 35 min at 4°C) (Amicon Ultra-15, 10 kDa MWCO, Millipore-Sigma, St. Louis, MO, U.S.A)
    Millipore-Sigma
    suggested: None

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    Our modelling approach has several weaknesses. We did not precisely model the transport and fate of SARS-CoV-2 in municipal sewer systems. The lack of data about flow dynamics and particles binding of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater hampered a more detailed approach. Hence, we took a simple approach to model the below-ground component and assumed the flow dynamic followed a low-dispersion plug flow model with a plausible fixed decay rate [46] and varied the mean transit time (from shedding to sampling sites) within a range of possible values. As more research focuses on the fate of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater, the transport module of our model can be enhanced. The comparison with observed seroprevalence level must be done with caution, because we do not model seroreversion (patients who were infected but subsequently test seronegative because of loss of immunity or antibodies falling to undetectable levels). Our model does not model vaccination explicitly. We made this choice to keep the first version of our model relatively simple. However, we believe that we can appropriately approximate the effects of infection-permissive vaccination by reducing the transmission rate and increasing the proportion of asymptomatic infections. As the proportion of vaccinated individuals increases, modelling an explicit vaccination process is necessary. We note that for the Canadian cities studied here, the vaccination coverage was either null or low during the study period. We model SARS-CoV-2 as a sin...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  3. Version published to 10.1101/2021.07.19.21260773v1 on medRxiv