The potential impact of vaccine passports on inclination to accept COVID-19 vaccinations in the United Kingdom: Evidence from a large cross-sectional survey and modeling study

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Abstract

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  1. SciScore for 10.1101/2021.05.31.21258122: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    All multilevel regression models are implemented using JAGS version 4.3.0 (implemented via rjags26) and R version 4.0.3. 10,000 posterior samples (not including 2,000 for model burn-in) was sufficient for successful convergence and all posterior draws were well-mixed (see appendix).
    JAGS
    suggested: (rjags, RRID:SCR_017573)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).


    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    Before drawing any conclusions from our study, it is important to note a number of limitations. Most obviously, our data consists of self-reports and, due to social desirability concerns, people may over-state their intention to do what the Government, health professions and media are heavily promoting. However, comparing those who either said they would definitely get vaccinated or were leaning towards it in a nationally representative survey of 16,820 UK adults conducted in October 202014 (two months before the first COVID-19 vaccination in the UK37) to the numbers of people who actually took up the offer of a first dose (to 30 April 2021), we find that the former is close to but actually a little lower than the latter (55-64-year-olds: 83·8% vs. 86·9%; 65-79-year-olds: 90·0% vs. 93·2%; Over 80s: 90·1% vs. 94·9%). In sum, without ruling it out, there is little evidence for a strong desirability effect, although previous underestimation could also point to a general increase in intent to vaccinate across the UK since vaccine rollout began. A second and related issue is that, even if it is accepted that our data reflect genuine intentions, these are still not the same as actual vaccination uptake. While we find that passports result in a net decrease in vaccination inclinations among those who are undecided, we have no way of knowing whether this is enough to tip anybody over into actually refusing the vaccine. Hence, we cannot be definitive about the real-world impact of int...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.


    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.


    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.


    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.


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