Estimating the Impact of Daily Weather on the Temporal Pattern of COVID-19 Outbreak in India
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Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has spread obstreperously in India. The increase in daily confirmed cases accelerated significantly from ~ 5 additional new cases (ANC)/day during early March up to ~ 249 ANC/day during early June. An abrupt change in this temporal pattern was noticed during mid-April, from which can be inferred a much reduced impact of the nationwide lockdown in India. Daily maximum ( T Max ), minimum ( T Min ), mean ( T Mean ) and dew point temperature ( T Dew ), wind speed (WS), relative humidity, and diurnal range in temperature and relative humidity during March 01 to June 04, 2020 over 9 major affected cities are analyzed to look into the impact of daily weather on COVID-19 infections on that day and 7, 10, 12, 14, 16 days before those cases were detected (i.e., on the likely transmission days). Spearman’s correlation exhibits significantly lower association with WS, T Max , T Min , T Mean , T Dew , but is comparatively better with a lag of 14 days. Support Vector regression successfully estimated the count of confirmed cases ( R 2 > 0.8) at a lag of 12–16 days, thus reflecting a probable incubation period of 14 ± 02 days in India. Approximately 75% of total cases were registered when T Max , T Mean , T Min , T Dew , and WS at 12–16 days previously were varying within the range of 33.6–41.3 °C, 29.8–36.5 °C, 24.8–30.4 °C, 18.7–23.6 °C, and 4.2–5.75 m/s, respectively. Thus, we conclude that coronavirus transmission is not well correlated (linearly) with any individual weather parameter; rather, transmission is susceptible to a certain weather pattern. Hence multivariate non-linear approach must be employed instead.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.15.20131490: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank…
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.15.20131490: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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