Ethnic differences in COVID-19 mortality during the first two waves of the Coronavirus Pandemic: a nationwide cohort study of 29 million adults in England

  1. Vahé Nafilyan
  2. Nazrul Islam
  3. Rohini Mathur
  4. Daniel Ayoubkhani
  5. Amitava Banerjee
  6. Myer Glickman
  7. Ben Humberstone
  8. Ian Diamond
  9. Kamlesh Khunti

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Abstract

Ethnic minorities have experienced disproportionate COVID-19 mortality rates in the UK and many other countries. We compared the differences in the risk of COVID-19 related death between ethnic groups in the first and second waves the of COVID-19 pandemic in England. We also investigated whether the factors explaining differences in COVID-19 death between ethnic groups changed between the two waves. Using data from the Office for National Statistics Public Health Data Asset, a linked dataset combining the 2011 Census with primary care and hospital records and death registrations, we conducted an observational cohort study to examine differences in the risk of death involving COVID-19 between ethnic groups in the first wave (from 24th January 2020 until 31st August 2020) and the first part of the second wave (from 1st September to 28th December 2020). We estimated age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) in the two waves stratified by ethnic groups and sex. We also estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for ethnic-minority groups compared with the White British population, adjusted for geographical factors, socio-demographic characteristics, and pre-pandemic health conditions. The study population included over 28.9 million individuals aged 30–100 years living in private households. In the first wave, all ethnic minority groups had a higher risk of COVID-19 related death compared to the White British population. In the second wave, the risk of COVID-19 death remained elevated for people from Pakistani (ASMR: 339.9 [95% CI: 303.7–376.2] and 166.8 [141.7–191.9] deaths per 100,000 population in men and women) and Bangladeshi (318.7 [247.4–390.1] and 127.1 [91.1–171.3] in men and women) background but not for people from Black ethnic groups. Adjustment for geographical factors explained a large proportion of the differences in COVID-19 mortality in the first wave but not in the second wave. Despite an attenuation of the elevated risk of COVID-19 mortality after adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and health status, the risk was substantially higher in people from Bangladeshi and Pakistani background in both the first and the second waves. Between the first and second waves of the pandemic, the reduction in the difference in COVID-19 mortality between people from Black ethnic background and people from the White British group shows that ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 mortality can be addressed. The continued higher rate of mortality in people from Bangladeshi and Pakistani background is alarming and requires focused public health campaign and policy changes.

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  1. Version published to 10.1007/s10654-021-00765-1
  2. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.02.03.21251004: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variableWe calculated ASMRs separately for men and women.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    Strengths and limitations: The primary strength of our study is the use of a unique, nationwide, newly linked population-level data set based on the General Practice Extraction Service (GPES) Data for pandemic planning and research, linked to the most comprehensive and reliable sources of sociodemographic variables from the latest census, mortality records and Hospital Episode Statistics. Unlike studies based solely on electronic health records, our study is based on self-identified ethnicity, with very few missing data. Our data contain both detailed socio-demographic characteristics, such as household composition, housing quality, and occupational exposure, and extensive information on pre-pandemic health based on primary care and hospital records. To our knowledge, our study is the first to use nationally representative linked data to examine the association between ethnicity and COVID-19 mortality while accounting for the effect of both socio-demographic factors and comorbidities. The main limitation of our study data set is the 9-year lag between census day and the start of the pandemic. Most socio-demographic characteristics included in our models reflect the situations of individuals as they were in 2011, not necessarily those at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. To mitigate this, we excluded people aged less than 30 years old, whose circumstances are the most likely to have changed since the Census. We also updated place of residence based on information from the 20...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2021.02.03.21251004v1 on medRxiv