Is it safe to lift COVID-19 travel bans? The Newfoundland story
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.16.20155614: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources We apply Bayes’ rule to obtain the posterior distribution of the parameters using the reported case numbers and selected prior distributions using the NO-U-Turn sampler (NUTS) [14] implemented in the Python package PyMC3 [32].
Pythonsuggested: (IPython, RRID:SCR_001658)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Just like any model, our network epidemiology model has …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.16.20155614: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources We apply Bayes’ rule to obtain the posterior distribution of the parameters using the reported case numbers and selected prior distributions using the NO-U-Turn sampler (NUTS) [14] implemented in the Python package PyMC3 [32].
Pythonsuggested: (IPython, RRID:SCR_001658)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Just like any model, our network epidemiology model has several important limitations: First, the current effective reproduction number in a region with no active cases is undefined which makes predictions very difficult. Here we approximate the effective reproduction number of Newfoundland and Labrador by the population-weighted mean across all of North America and across Canada, which we infer from the reported COVID-19 case data using machine learning [28]. However, we have no idea how well these estimates represent the true behavior of the population of Newfoundland and Labrador upon gradual reopening, since a population that has not experienced a serious outbreak may be more complacent. Second, we assume that the effective reproduction number of all states, provinces, and territories remains constant at its July 1, 2020 level. Since this number reflects both social behavior and personal interaction [7], this is a strong limitation. Yet, it seems reasonable to anticipate that the current North American mean of Rt = 1.36 represents an upper limit for our prediction in the sparsely populated province of Newfoundland and Labrador. Third, we have assumed that the fraction of exposed and infectious travelers to Newfoundland and Labrador is similar to the exposed and infected fractions at the locations of origin. Naturally, we would assume that truly sick individuals are less likely to travel, a behavioral effect, which we could include using agent-based modeling. Fourth, our m...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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