The coronavirus disease ( COVID ‐19) pandemic: simulation‐based assessment of outbreak responses and postpeak strategies
This article has been Reviewed by the following groups
Listed in
- Evaluated articles (ScreenIT)
Abstract
It is critical to understand the impact of distinct interventions on the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. I develop a behavioral dynamic epidemic model for multifaceted policy analysis comprising endogenous virus transmission (from severe or mild/asymptomatic cases), social contacts, and case testing and reporting. Calibration of the system dynamics model to the ongoing outbreak (31 December 2019–15 May 2020) using multiple time series data (reported cases and deaths, performed tests, and social interaction proxies) from six countries (South Korea, Germany, Italy, France, Sweden, and the United States) informs an explanatory analysis of outbreak responses and postpeak strategies. Specifically, I demonstrate, first, how timing and efforts of testing‐capacity expansion and social‐contact reduction interplay to affect outbreak dynamics and can explain a large share of cross‐country variation in outbreak pathways. Second, absent at‐scale availability of pharmaceutical solutions, postpeak social contacts must remain well below prepandemic values. Third, proactive (targeted) interventions, when complementing general deconfinement readiness, can considerably increase admissible postpeak social contacts.
© 2020 System Dynamics Society
Article activity feed
-
-
-
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.13.20063610: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:The model and analyses suffer from usual limitations as well as from those related to the emergent case of the outbreak. First, the relatively aggregate representation of population segments implies that important dynamics may …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.13.20063610: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:The model and analyses suffer from usual limitations as well as from those related to the emergent case of the outbreak. First, the relatively aggregate representation of population segments implies that important dynamics may be missed. For example the emergence of superspreader events are expected to important in the spread of many infectious diseases (Lau et al. 2016). While the model allows analysis of targeted approaches the model is currently not well equipped to examine such heterogeneity. Likewise, given the relative aggregation in the current analysis, the model likely underestimates the value of targeted approaches. The model in its present form also leaves out important structural elements, such as endogenous infections and fatality within the health-providing system (Fiddaman 2020). The analyses and limitations listed here suggest at least three clear directions for further work. First, in terms of problem orientation, given that in the current pandemic countries increasingly begin to reach the peak of the first outbreak wave, future analysis should focus on managing the transition towards deconfinement and resurgence waves. The experiments show that the model is well-suited for such analysis. The full model also has a tentative sub structure that allows the implementation and roll-out of (potentially imperfect or slow) vaccination as well consider the role of immunity loss rate. While switched off for the purpose of this paper, over the next year(s) understanding...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
-
-