Mathematical modeling of the spread of the coronavirus under strict social restrictions
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Abstract
We formulate a simple susceptible‐infectious‐recovery (SIR) model to describe the spread of the coronavirus under strict social restrictions. The transmission rate in this model is exponentially decreasing with time. We find a formula for basic reproduction function and estimate the maximum number of daily infected individuals. We fit the model to induced death data in Italy, United States, Germany, France, India, Spain, and China over the period from the first reported death to August 7, 2020. We notice that the model has excellent fit to the disease death data in these countries. We estimate the model's parameters in each of these countries with 95% confidence intervals. We order the strength of social restrictions in these countries using the exponential rate. We estimate the time needed to reduce the basic reproduction function to one unit and use it to order the quality of social restrictions in these countries. The social restriction in China was the strictest and the most effective and in India was the weakest and the least effective. Policy‐makers may apply the Chinese successful social restriction experiment and avoid the Indian unsuccessful one.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.09.14.20194068: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.09.14.20194068: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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