A delayed modulation of solar ultraviolet radiation on the COVID ‐19 transmission reflects an incubation period
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Abstract
Laboratory experiments have revealed the meteorological sensitivity of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) virus. However, no consensus has been reached about how outdoor meteorological conditions modulate the virus transmission as it is also constrained by non‐meteorological conditions. Here, we identify the outbreak's evolution stage, constrained least by non‐meteorological conditions, by searching the maximum correlation coefficient between the ultraviolet flux and the growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases at the country level. At this least‐constrained stage, the cumulative cases count around 1300–3200, and the count's daily growth rate correlates with the ultraviolet flux and temperature significantly (correlation coefficients r = −0.54 ± 0.09 and −0.39 ± 0.10 at , respectively), but not with precipitation, humidity, and wind. The ultraviolet correlation exhibits a delay of about 7 days, providing a meteorological measure of the incubation period. Our work reveals a seasonality of COVID‐19 and a high risk of a pandemic resurgence in winter, implying a need for seasonal adaption in public policies.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.10.13.20183111: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.10.13.20183111: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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