Prediction of COVID‐19 cases during Tokyo's Olympic and Paralympic Games
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Abstract
Tokyo's Olympic and Paralympic Games set to begin in late July 2021 without spectators from abroad, but vaccine rollout has been slow in Japan compared with other developed countries. In this study, COVID‐19 epidemic curve in Tokyo is developed based on weekly reported data from January 23, 2020, until April 16, 2021. The maximum daily number of infected cases in Tokyo in August 2021 would be 7,991 if the current pace of vaccinations would be used (1/1,000 per day). This daily number is greater than the highest daily cases (2,447) recorded on January 7, 2021. However, if the rollout pace could be doubled (1/500 per day), the peak daily new cases would be 4,470 in August. If it could be quadrupled (1/250 per day), the peak would be noted at 2,128 in July and the highest number in August would be 1,977. If vaccine rollout could not be enhanced, the cancellation might be an acceptable decision, since health is the most precious to local people and our Olympians.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.04.21.21255676: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter:…
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.04.21.21255676: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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