Modeling population‐wide testing of SARS‐CoV‐2 for containing COVID‐19 pandemic in Okinawa, Japan
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Abstract
To break the chains of SARS‐CoV‐2 transmission and contain the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic, population‐wide testing has been practiced in various countries. However, scant research has addressed this topic in Japan. In this modeling exercise, we extracted the number of daily reported cases of COVID‐19 in Okinawa from October 1 to November 30, 2020, and explored possible scenarios for decreasing COVID‐19 incidence by combining population‐wide screening and/or social distancing policy. We reveal that permanent lockdown can be theoretically replaced by mass testing but sufficient target population at an adequate frequency must be mobilized. In addition, solely imposing a circuit breaker will not bring a favorable outcome in the long run, and mass testing presents implications for minimizing a period of lockdown. Our results highlight the importance of incentivizing citizens to join the frequent testing and ensure their appropriate isolation. This study also suggests that early containment of COVID‐19 will be feasible in prefectures where the mobility is low and/or can be easily controlled for its geographic characteristics. Rigorous investment in public health will be manifestly vital to contain COVID‐19.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.12.19.20248573: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:There are several limitations in this modelling exercise. First, the heterogeneity of COVID-19 infection is not considered. The heterogeneity of the offspring distribution of secondary infection of COVID-19 is recognized [36,37], and intervention in high-risk environments will be effective for preventing superspreading events [38]. We …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.12.19.20248573: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:There are several limitations in this modelling exercise. First, the heterogeneity of COVID-19 infection is not considered. The heterogeneity of the offspring distribution of secondary infection of COVID-19 is recognized [36,37], and intervention in high-risk environments will be effective for preventing superspreading events [38]. We launched this modelling exercise with concerns that a great number of essential workers, even healthcare workers at hospitals and nursing homes, still cannot access to regular protective screening in Japan [12]. Opportunities for population-wide testing can be beneficial for ensuring their access to testing. Second, the management of prefectural borders is not considered. However, as Okinawa prefecture has no land bridge except the U.S. Military Bases and Facilities on Okinawa Island and Its Vicinity, test-based strategy at its prefectural border can be easily implemented compared to other prefectures. Third, our modelling did not strongly address the importance of contact-tracing. While this assumption is plausible in that the tracing capacity in public health centers has been overwhelmed in Japan [11,39], the population-wide testing followed by contact tracing activities, even limited ones, will contribute to further reducing transmission. Fourth, we assumed that the lockdown would decrease social contacts by 50%. Considering that the state of emergency in Japan in April has been declared under the assumption that social contacts will be decre...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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