Association of Simulated COVID-19 Vaccination and Nonpharmaceutical Interventions With Infections, Hospitalizations, and Mortality

  1. Mehul D. Patel
  2. Erik Rosenstrom
  3. Julie S. Ivy
  4. Maria E. Mayorga
  5. Pinar Keskinocak
  6. Ross M. Boyce
  7. Kristen Hassmiller Lich
  8. Raymond L. Smith
  9. Karl T. Johnson
  10. Paul L. Delamater
  11. Julie L. Swann

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Abstract

No abstract available

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  1. Version published to 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.10782
  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.12.30.20248888v2 on medRxiv
  3. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.12.30.20248888: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    Experimental Models: Organisms/Strains
    SentencesResources
    For subgroup analyses, simulation results were stratified by race/ethnicity (Non-Hispanic White, Non-Hispanic Black/African American, and Hispanic).
    Non-Hispanic White
    suggested: None
    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: Limited mobility (i.e., physical distancing) was estimated with SafeGraph mobility data30aggregated by census tract RUCA code and income quartile.
    SafeGraph
    suggested: None

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    In addition to the modeling assumptions discussed above, there are notable limitations to our study. The unique population characteristics for the studied state, including population demographics, prevalence of diabetes, rurality, mobility and adherence to NPIs, influence the transmission of infections and COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. General insights into the comparative and joint impact of vaccination and NPIs may apply to other states or regions though exact numerical values will vary. The broad age category for adults (20-64 years old) limits age-specificity of outcomes within this range. Demographic attributes (e.g., age and race/ethnicity) within census tract were assigned independently, and interactions were not fully captured. Our model framework assumed only hospitalized individuals can transition to death, so mortality estimates of the early phase of the pandemic may be inaccurate since many deaths occurred in nursing homes and outside the hospital. Lastly, while the variability in outcomes across replications was computed, our results do not reflect uncertainty in the model structure and parameter specification. Our study suggests vaccinating the majority of the adult population and continued adherence to NPIs such as physical distancing and face mask usage will have the greatest impact on ending the current COVID-19 pandemic. These findings emphasize the need for resources and coordination to achieve high vaccine coverage and continued adherence to NPIs befor...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  4. Version published to 10.1101/2020.12.30.20248888v1 on medRxiv