Association of Social Distancing, Population Density, and Temperature With the Instantaneous Reproduction Number of SARS-CoV-2 in Counties Across the United States

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Abstract

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  1. SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.08.20094474: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    Analyses were performed with R (version 3.6.0; R Development Core Team) using the EpiEstim and dlnm packages.
    R Development Core
    suggested: (R Project for Statistical Computing, RRID:SCR_001905)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).


    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    There are always limitations in observational studies. Generalizability remains a concern, particularly given our focus on larger counties. The 45% of the population not captured in our analysis were residing in smaller rural counties and as such our models are not applicable to these areas. Their omission likely attenuates the effects we observe, at least for population density. We considered total cases reported within each county. It is possible that differences in diagnostic test availability could contribute to the variation detected by the random effects across counties. However, our estimate of Rt depends on the rate of change of cases rather than the absolute number of cases, which should limit the impact diagnostic test availability. Further, we smoothed early outbreak case incidences to account for early limited access to diagnostic tests. We intentionally did not include testing capacity as a covariate, so as not to overfit the model (e.g., controlling for a factor that was also associated with rising viral transmission itself). As the random county intercept explained additional variation, there are likely unmeasured county factors that we did not capture. These factors might include commuter automobile traffic, public transportation usage, and domestic and international flights, which had decreased during the study period. It is clear that early local epidemics were seeded by international travel that contributed to early transmission in some locations.31 Further...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.


    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.


    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.


    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.