Persistent Invasion Risk: Modeling the near-Current and Future Distribution of Pterygoplichthys disjunctivus across the Philippine Archipelago

Philippine freshwater ecosystems are considered one of the most diverse ecosystems harboring numerous fish species. However, in the Philippines, these ecosystems are threatened by invasive species that potentially disrupt ecological balance. In this study, we focused on the vermiculated sailfin catfish Pterygoplichthys disjunctivus, an invasive aquarium species reported in several Philippine aquatic ecosystems. Despite its documented spread, its potential range under a rapidly changing climate remains poorly understood for the country. Hence, in this study, we utilized the MaxEnt model to predict its near-current and future habitat suitability in the Philippines. Using 11 reported occurrences, our model showed high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.882± .034, TSS = 0.7394 ± 0.154, SEDI = 0.971 ± 0.019). Across the current and future scenarios, slope was the primary contributor (78.7% – 81.3%), followed by BIO 10 or the mean temperature of the warmest quarter(18% – 27.8%), and flow accumulation (0% – 5.2%). However, for the SSP126 scenario, BIO10 is projected to triple by 2050 (18 – 48%). Current projections identify high-risk regions, particularly central Luzon (Laguna de Bay and Lake Taal), the Cagayan River Valley, and portions of eastern Mindanao (Agusan Marsh and Lake Mainit). Sankey transition analysis confirms a high habitat stability rate (>73%) for high-suitability pixels in both SSPs, indicating persistent invasion risk. Overall, our study provides a framework for invasive species management and contributes to the conservation of Philippine aquatic ecosystems.