Supply Creation or Demand Pull? Spatio-Temporal Differentiation and Evolution Path of China’s Sports Consumption Potential

Expanding and improving sports consumption is used as a lever to boost domestic demand, accelerate the shift from latent to realized demand, upgrade consumption structure, and provide endogenous growth for high-quality economic development. Drawing on supply-security theory and demand-release hypotheses, this study constructs a supply–demand evaluation framework and quantifies residents’ sports consumption potential using provincial panel data from 2008 to 2023. Findings indicate that the potential for sports consumption in China grows over time, with a decreasing gradient from East to Central to West to Northeast. Regional disparities reveal a widening overall inequality, with the strongest within-region divergence in the East, and a clear spatial polarization between the East and Central regions. The Central region shows distinctive α-convergence and non-significant absolute β-convergence; conditional β-convergence is significant in all regions. Spatial clustering is significant but weakening over time. The study clarifies mechanisms linking sports consumption potential to demand and offers implications for the long-term expansion of domestic demand.