Projected early spread of COVID-19 in Africa through 1 June 2020

  1. Carl AB Pearson
  2. Cari Van Schalkwyk
  3. Anna M Foss
  4. Kathleen M O’Reilly
  5. SACEMA Modelling and Analysis Response Team
  6. CMMID COVID-19 working group
  7. Juliet RC Pulliam

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Abstract

For 45 African countries/territories already reporting COVID-19 cases before 23 March 2020, we estimate the dates of reporting 1,000 and 10,000 cases. Assuming early epidemic trends without interventions, all 45 were likely to exceed 1,000 confirmed cases by the end of April 2020, with most exceeding 10,000 a few weeks later.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.05.20054403: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.18.2000543
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.05.20054403v1 on medRxiv